The Red Tsunami
Political cartoon of GOP capitalizing on increased gas prices under Biden for the 2022 midterms. Source: Politico/Matt Wuerker.
Do you know what it feels like to be somewhere before a tsunami hits? First a siren blares louder than any alarm you’ve ever heard, and then you spot the crest of the first wave coming towards you. As it approaches the horizon and time slows down, it gets bigger and bigger before it finally hits, destroying everything in its path.
The sirens have been blaring for 2022 ever since Biden set foot in office. Ever since Afghanistan, ever since Manchin and Sinema blocked his agenda, ever since every press blunder and off the cuff remark. Recent history and prevailing American political theory dictate that the opposition party ALWAYS wins the midterms after a new president is elected, and Biden’s lackluster poll numbers alongside growing political polarization didn’t seem to indicate anything was changing.
And so the sirens kept blaring, until the crest of the red wave was finally spotted. Establishment Democrat Terry McCaullife losing a virtually guaranteed gubernatorial race in Virginia on November 2nd, 2021 should have been a defining moment regarding Democratic political discourse. It should have confirmed their fears and spurred Democrats to evaluate the true effectiveness of their messaging while uniting against an overpowering rival. However, Democrats are barely staying afloat. We are as weak and divided as we have been since 2010 with messaging that simply isn’t resonating with a struggling public that’s tired of COVID, frustrated with $6 gas, and angry at a seemingly ineffective White House.
Right now, the powerful red wave towers over us higher than ever before, and it’s continuing to grow; it’s one strong enough to wipe out 50+ House seats and countless governorships and state legislatures. As it stands, Democrats are going to let all of the progress they have made be obliterated by a GOP hell-bent on reducing the Biden administration and legacy to rubble. Recovering from a tsunami takes time: even after the red wave recedes the damage to abortion rights, climate change, and dozens of other policy positions will stay. If a future of fixing those mistakes and fighting the same fights doesn’t sound appealing to you, I’m going to lay out what Democrats can do to soften the blow and what things out of our control may change the incoming tides.
The main change Democrats need to make is a change in messaging. Our image is becoming dissonant for a greater proportion of the population by the day, who see us as an out-of-touch, radical party whose actions are primarily performative and whose words are used to cancel those who we disagree with. I’m hardly saying this is an accurate representation of the Democratic party, but frankly we can’t keep denying that this is how many moderates and centrists view us. Democrats need to acknowledge that we have an image problem, and then deal with it through phrasing issues in a way that's relevant to everyone listening.
Take for example the issue of reforming law enforcement. Nearly everyone (including many cops) stands to gain from a society in which law enforcement is not above the law and is held accountable for their actions. The core idea behind “Defund the Police” is one that resonates with most people, since it involves allowing mental health professionals to handle most incidents in a non-violent way while law enforcement remains on call for more serious, violent crimes. However, the very phrase “Defund the Police” is a turn-off to most voters given that crime is at the highest it's been in decades. I’m not suggesting that we compromise our values, but our semantics need to change because the progressive movement is going to get nowhere if ordinary people don’t want to listen.
Given that Roe v. Wade is set to be overturned this summer, abortion will be at least a key, if not the defining issue of the 2022 midterms. How Democrats address the ruling and the future of abortion rights will be critical to their potential success come November. Pundits predict that the threat to abortion rights will greatly increase turnout for the Democratic party among women, particuarly suburban white women that live in potential swing districts. In addition, given that conservatives will have achieved their biggest goal in decades, Republican turnout could be depressed due to a lack of motivation. However, we cannot rely on these factors to give us success, since the idea of finally being able to impose anti-choice policies on the state level will excite Republicans in swing states.
Share of U.S. adults who fully support or fully oppose legal abortion. Source: FiveThirtyEight/Jean Yi and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux.
In order to have winning messaging on abortion, Democrats need to recognize the following contrasting facts: the majority of Americans support upholding Roe v. Wade, but the majority of Americans do not feel strongly pro-choice or pro-life. Rather than engage in rhetoric that demonizes those who are not 100% pro-choice, Democrats need to focus on the broader implications of rolling back Roe v. Wade that will impact every American. The issue of abortion was never just about the medical procedure, and the Roe v. Wade decision was never just about abortion. Conflicts over abortion and Roe v. Wade strike at the core of our personal and constitutional freedoms.
As Michelle Obama eloquently stated in her response to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, “What Roe recognized is that . . . the 14th amendment . . . requires all of us to enjoy a sphere of our lives that isn’t subject to meddling from the state - a sphere . . . involving who we sleep with, who we marry, whether or not to use contraception, and whether or not to bear children.” Though abortion alone may not get the majority of voters out to the polls, percieved threats to personal freedoms will. The right has done an incredible job using the word “freedom” in their messaging over the last few decades, but the left can use the overturning of Roe to reposition themselves as the party of freedom, which will resonate with voters all over the political spectrum.
Another prevalent issue that will define the 2022 midterms is the economy and inflation. Generally speaking, when the economy is doing poorly, so are the president’s approval ratings, which is highly correlated with poor midterm performances. At the moment, though job growth and unemployment are doing good under Biden, inflation is at the highest it’s been in decades and middle class wages are continuing their stagnation. Republicans have spared no chance to criticize what they call frivolous spending by the Democrats on social programs, large spending packages, and COVID stimulus. Democrats can reduce the damage by continually highlighting their positive performances on reducing unemployment and encouraging job growth while pointing out the positive impacts of their spending on infrastructure and reducing child poverty. In addition, Democrats can point out examples of excess Republican spending and make promises to engage in fiscal responsibility through increasing government revenues while pivoting away from discussing spending increases ahead of the midterms.
In regards to factors that Democrats lack control over, the progression of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ability of the US to support Ukraine against Russian aggression could play a major role in the elections. Before I dive further into this point, I want to note the severity of the topic and state that my goal is not to politicize the atrocities Ukrainians have suffered, but just to acknowledge the practical effects the invasion will have on the midterms. If, with the support of the US and the West, Ukraine is able to fully push back the Russian invasion, it will provide some boost to the Democrats through allowing Biden to portray strength on the international stage.
Republicans toe the party line that Democrats are weak and ineffective leaders, so a major win on the world stage for Biden against one of America’s biggest rivals will go a long way in refuting this message. Additionally, especially under Trump, Republicans were far less willing to work with the rest of the world on international crises, so Biden successfully working with the international community to end the invasion of Ukraine will bolster public opinion of Democrats’ collaborative foriegn policy. However, there is far more to lose than to gain for Democrats in regards to the outcomes of the invasion of Ukraine. If the conflict draws further out or tips in favor of Putin, Republicans will not hesitate to target the Biden administration as weak, unable to promote freedom worldwide, and submissive to Putin. This would prove to be devastating to the Democrats in the midterms.
There are two other major X factors that will impact the midterm results. The first one is congressional redistricting, which so far seems to be favoring Democrats since we control more governorships and state legislatures now than we did after the 2010 elections and therefore will face less Republican gerrymandering. As redistricting continues, whether or not courts decide to uphold congressional maps that have been accused of having partisan bias will be critical to determining how many swing districts there will be and where they will be located. The second one is what role Donald Trump will play in supporting Republican candidates. We have seen Trump and establishment Republicans battle each other across the country over various endorsements, so if Trump tends to get his way in the primaries, he may be more vocal and present in November. Trump’s presence both carries the ability to drive his supporters to the polls at astounding rates but also alienate Republicans who aren’t in his cult of personality, as well as drive Democrats to the polls to oppose him.
The incoming red wave is something that we can’t ignore for the sake of the legacy of the current administration as well as the future of the country. Though the wave is strong and powerful, it’s not invincible, and the right rhetoric, strategy, and luck can bring Democrats unexpected success on election day. Organizing, adjusting our rhetoric, and getting out the vote will improve our chances, though there is much we cannot control. If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that political upsets and surprises are possible, and being on the right side of one of these surprises could be the difference between moving backwards or leaping forwards. Though the odds may not be in our favor, never forget that the future is in our hands if we’re willing to fight for it.