Cal Berkeley Democrats

Redrawing Northern California

California's new congressional map. Image courtesy of Daily Kos.

On July 28, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission issued its final draft maps of California’s congressional and state legislature districts. A result of 2008′s Proposition 11 and 2010′s Proposition 20, the maps undid the 2001 bipartisan gerrymander and created districts respecting communities of interest and county lines (at least more than the previous version). The commission, consisting of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four decline-to-states, also drew more competitive districts. Short of a final commission vote on August 15 failing, a referendum against them passing, or a court order striking them down, these maps will define California politics for the next ten years.

For some background, in 2001, the California State Legislature decided to make all congressional and state legislature districts safe for their incumbents. This resulted in strangely-looking districts, a prominent example being the 23rd congressional district, a thin strip stretching from the Monterey-San Luis Obispo county line to Oxnard. While the maps were designed to stymie party turnover, California’s political changes did not stop as more areas turned to Democrats for representation and leadership. With time the map turned into a pro-Republican gerrymander as more and more Republicans clung to their seats in the low-to-mid 50s while most Democrats won with over 60% of the vote.

The remapping pulled the proverbial rug from under the Republicans’ feet, and many of their districts have now become more competitive or turned into Democratic strongholds. California will see more of its share of competitive races, mostly at the GOP’s expense. In this post, I will concentrate on Northern California, roughly defined as everything north of Los Angeles County.

• CD-03: This Davis- and Fairfield-centered district stretches from right outside Vallejo north to Yuba City, halfway between Sacramento and Chico. The district is split between super-Republican territory in the north and Democratic strongholds in the south, with the Democrats having the advantage. Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi is favored here, but anything goes in a hostile election cycle.
• CD-07: Formerly the 3rd district, this district takes in eastern Sacramento County and is home of incumbent Republican Dan Lungren. However, the district has begun to leave him behind, with Lungren barely surviving in 2008 and clinging to a seven-point margin in 2010. The commission severed off Republican strongholds and left behind bluing turf, making him even more vulnerable. Democrat Ami Bera, Lungren’s opponent in 2010, has announced his candidacy, while Democratic assemblywoman Alyson Huber, who won in a Republican district by 700 votes in 2008, is contemplating a run.
• CD-09: This district takes in a swath of the Delta region from Antioch to Stockton and leans Democratic. Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney, whose Republican-leaning district was dismantled, plans to run here. He is favored but is by no means safe for reelection.
• CD-10: This Modesto-centered district leans Republican, but is bluing ever so slowly with the rest of the Central Valley and may become competitive in a few years. Incumbent Republican Jeff Denham, who doesn’t even live in the district, will run here, but may be treading on increasingly tenuous ground.
• CD-21: Formerly the 20th district, the district takes in the southwest Central Valley from the Fresno outskirts to Bakersfield. While heavily Democratic and Hispanic, the district is swingy due to abysmally low turnout, and incumbent Democrat Jim Costa nearly lost here in 2010, and severing off Fresno (his home and base) only made the situation worse. Republican assemblyman David Valadao is planning a run here.
• CD-25: The aforementioned 23rd district’s new iteration is this Democratic-leaning district, heavily dependent on student turnout in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara. This district is also similar to the 1990s version, when UC Santa Barbara professor Walter Capps swung the district  from Republican to Democratic in 1996. After dying of a heart attack in Dulles Airport (resulting in many public places having defibrillators), his widow Lois Capps won a special election and still represents the area. She is heavily favored here but is vulnerable in a wave year.
• CD-26: The formerly-Republican counterpart to CD-25 is this Democratic-tilting district centered on Oxnard and Thousand Oaks. Incumbent Republican Elton Gallegly will be living on borrowed time here, but can console himself somewhat with the weak Democratic bench here.
• SD-05: The Stockton-centered state senate district contains all of San Joaquin County and a part of Modesto. This swing district is home to incumbent Republican Tom Berryhill, who has been working overtime to moderate his image. However, with the district trending blue, a Democrat with money and support can show Berryhill the door.
• SD-12: This district remains an enigma for Democrats. On paper, it is extremely blue, more so than the Sacramento-area districts that have fallen into Democratic hands in recent years. Yet this district keeps electing Republicans, most recently in 2010 when Anthony Cannella won by three points. The new district is similar to the old one and awaits an ambitious Democrat with the right qualifications and platform to finally turn this district blue.
• SD-17: Democrats were disappointed when John Laird was defeated by Republican assemblyman Sam Blakeslee in this district’s predecessor in 2010. The previous district, though slightly Democratic, was designed to protect its then-incumbent, moderate Republican Bruce McPherson. The commission took out conservative Santa Maria in the south and added Santa Cruz and parts of San Jose, pushing the district even more leftward. Democratic assemblyman Bill Monning of Carmel is contemplating a run there.
• AD-08: In 2001, Sacramento County was gerrymandered from one Democratic and two Republican state assembly districts to one Democratic and four Republican districts to protect the Republicans from the rising blue tide. This cartographic levee failed and all but one district went blue by 2010. This time around, Sacramento County has two Democratic districts, one Republican district, and one swingy district. This is the swingy district. Containing the eastern Sacramento suburbs, it tilts Democratic but will take quite a bit of work to make it stick.
• AD-21: This district is one of the last bastions of conservative-to-moderate Democrats in California. Currently represented by termed-out Democrat Cathleen Galgiani, this district may be one of the hardest-fought in all of California as Democrats seek to ward off Republican assemblymember Bill Berryhill (brother of Tom Berryhill), who was drawn into this district and may run here.
• AD-32: Its previous incarnation, the 30th district, is an anomaly: it was the only district in California to switch from Democrat to Republican. This heavily-Hispanic district is the home of two warring Democratic families, the Parras and the Florezes. Their most prominent members, former state assemblywoman Nicole Parra and former state senator Dean Florez, have even enlisted their parents in the fight, handing the district to Republicans as the Parras, who lost two of these battles, endorsed the Republicans rather than side with their sworn enemies. As the district’s incumbent Republican David Valadao plans to run for Congress, this seat might see another epic battle this coming cycle.
• AD-44: Another Ventura County district shifts into the theoretically-Democratic column, this time in the assembly. Its previous incarnation, the 37th district, contained the more conservative and Republican parts of the county, including Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, and Moorpark. The commission lopped off Simi Valley and attached heavily Democratic Oxnard, shifting the district dramatically leftward. Its incumbent, Republican Jeff Gorell, is currently in Afghanistan serving as a Navy reservist, which helps him in reelection, but a well-financed Democrat can still conceivably knock him off.

As Cal Dems, we will be in a good position to focus on these areas and work for Democrats aspiring to win in these districts by virtue of proximity. Sitting idly by constitutes more than political malpractice: it is tantamount to neglecting our state and our state’s future.

Note: The maps are from Redistricting Partners, a Democratic consulting group focused on redistricting issues around the state. Districts are notated as a two-letter shorthand for congressional (CD), state senate (SD), or state assembly (AD) districts followed by a number.